Flush Draws

Getting that fifth heart, club, spade, or diamond is by far one of the best feelings a player could experience when playing poker. In most instances, a flush will be the best possible hand. There are several exceptions: when the board pairs, a player could potentially have a full house. A player could also have a higher flush. As promising as a flush draw is, however, the percentages indicate that a player only has a thirty-five percent chance of catching the fifth suite.

This can be calculated by using simple mathematical probabilities. There are 13 of each suite in a deck: If a player has two hearts in his hand, and flops two hearts, four hearts in total are being used. Therefore, there are nine hearts left in the deck. In a standard table, nine people are dealt two cards each. Four cards are used on the flop and the burn card. Out of forty seven unknown cards, there is a thirty five percent chance of a player completing his flush. This number is reduced significantly if other players have the same suite or are also on a flush draw.

The numbers indicate that players should not proceed to call large bets when they are only on flush draws. 65 percent of the time, statistically, the player would miss his flush. Here, I would either encourage a player to lead out and semi-bluff the pot, or fold if another player is betting aggressively enough.



According to an article written by Jordy Pujol on pokerwants.com, "I would suggest that you always semi-bluff with a two down flush draw." In other words, Pujol is suggesting that it is in a player's best interests to lead out betting when on a draw, so other players perceive him to have a stronger hand than he raelly does. However, the player himself must figure out the pot odds. Calculating pot odds is the process of calculating whether or not a player is getting his money's worth by making a call.

There's a difference when the chip leader is leading out and betting on a flush draw, compared to when the short stack is betting. In terms of the chip leader, there's a chance the person chasing a flush could take a large portion of his stack if he hits his flush. The player chasing the flush, however, is not getting good odds because at most he'll just get the short stack. Flush draws can make or break a player's tournament and should be played with caution.

Sources:

http://pokerwants.com/strategy-tips/intermediate/semi-bluff-with-the-flush-draw/

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